The Seoul Times

The disintegration of Yugoslavia and recent events in Kosovo are reminders that parts of Europe remain unstable. This certainly applies to the nation of Macedonia because this state is faced with many serious problems. Notably the ticking ethnic Albanian time-bomb, the growth of Islam, hostile overtones from Greece because of the name of this nation, Macedonian nationalism, and anti-Albanian policies within the ruling political party. So can stability take place in such a diverse nation or will the gates of disintegration cause mayhem in the future?

The sizeable ethnic Albanian population does worry many Macedonians who are mainly Orthodox Christian in faith. They look at Kosovo with aghast because they know that this game could also be played out in their nation. Also, just like the mainly Christian Orthodox Serbs in Kosovo, the demographic time-bomb is a reality. Therefore, the Albanian population will continue to grow within Macedonia and at the same time Macedonian nationalism will isolate Albanians.

However, it must be stressed that the Albanian population is also divided and during the election in 2008, the major threat was internal Albanian rivalry. Therefore, the two major Albanian parties, the ethnic-Albanian Democratic Union for Integration (BDI) which obtained 11% of the vote, and the Democratic Party of Albanians (PDSH) which obtained 10% of the vote; are more concerned about ruling the Albanian dominated parts of Macedonia. This in itself gives Macedonia breathing space, however, the Macedonian prime minister, Nikola Gruevski, must not isolate Albanians who support the nation state nor must he intimidate the Albanian community. After all, you do have a lot of discrimination aimed at the Albanian population within Macedonia via the allocation of resources and internal development projects.

This demographic time-bomb alone is causing deep anxiety within Macedonia and greater ethnic unity appears to be a pipe dream because both sides do not fully trust each other. In many parts of Macedonia today the Macedonians are a minority, and the Albanian dominated areas and Macedonian dominated areas, are miles apart in terms of thinking, religion, culture, and social mobility. Therefore, negatives can be found in both communities with regards to nationalism and limited social interaction because of ethnic based thinking. Of course you have moderates within both camps and positives can be seen, however, overall it appears like two nations within one nation state and sooner or later this may erupt in full-scale violence?

Then we have the religious equation because most Albanians in Macedonia are Muslim. However, most Macedonians are Orthodox Christian and religious tensions could increase in the near future. Given this, nations like Saudi Arabia must be kept out in order to preserve a more moderate branch of Islam. Also, you have rivalries within the Orthodox Christian faith within the Balkans.

Adding to the woes of Macedonia is Greece because in Greece you have a place already called Macedonia within this nation state and Greece believes that Macedonia must change her name. Because of this the Macedonian dream of joining both the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) did not happen because of objections from Greece. Both the EU and NATO had hoped to fully integrate Macedonia within their respective institutions, thereby preserving the independence of this nation. However, Greece refuses to listen and because of this Macedonia is kept on the fringes.

The prime minister of Macedonia, Gruevski, is also lobbying the international community about the "Macedonian issue" in Greece. This applies to discrimination in Greece towards the ethnic Macedonian community. Therefore, the foreign minister of Macedonia, Antonio Milososki, stated that "Greece does not respect the linguistic diversity of the Macedonian minority. This problem has been elaborated in the EC reports for racism and intolerance, as well as in the Greek Helsinki Committee Monitor and in other NGO reports," Milososki commented. Given this, you clearly have major tensions between Greece and Macedonia and the name issue and treatment of ethnic Macedonians will continue to cause problems in the near future. Of course, Greece refutes these allegations, however, you clearly do have tensions between both nations.

Overall, it would appear that one major spark could destabilize this fragile nation and this is the problem, because this is indeed possible. Therefore, a lot of pressure must be put on Greece and Macedonia to solve the "name issue." If this can be resolved, then Macedonia can be strengthened via NATO and the EU. However, the ethnic Albanian population is a genuine problem and if assimilation does not take place then one day you could have major convulsions in this fragile nation. Therefore, this nation will continue to be hindered by many negative factors and it is important that the international community is wide awake at all times and that it acts before it is too late.

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA
http://journals.aol.com/leejaywalker/uk/

Lee Jay Walker serves as Tokyo Correspondent of The Seoul Times. He specializes in int'l relations and geopolitics. He is also involved in analyst work and research on business. After finishing BA degree in East European Studies at the University of London, He earned MA degree in Asia Pacific Studies in Nottingham Trent University. He also studied business at London Institute.