Russian bombardment in Georgia Photo Courtesy of New York Times

The government of Georgia entered South Ossetia in the hope of unifying this region within Georgia properly, rather in name only. However, while Georgia may have hoped that her closeness with America and NATO members may of helped, this may turn out to be a complete disaster? After all, the Russian Federation "is not a paper tiger" and instead this nation is gaining in economic, political, and geopolitical influence. So will Georgia regret their recent policy towards South Ossetia and will Abkhazia make the most of Georgia`s weakness?

It would appear that the President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, decided to ignite this war because of several factors. This notably applies to Georgia`s close relationship with America and the perception that this would insulate Georgia from a Russian backlash. Also, Georgia is pro-NATO and her armed forces are helping in Iraq. Therefore, this may have given the leader some confidence and this also ties in with increased military spending in Georgia.

After tensions led to clashes between the Georgian army and various South Ossetian militias it was hoped that a binding ceasefire would be implemented. However, instead of this, both sides were involved in fighting and the situation became more tense. Then on 7 August the situation took a huge nosedive because the leader of Georgia ordered a major military operation whereby the Georgian army would take back South Ossetia by force. However, the Russian Federation responded quickly and the following day her armed forces entered South Ossetia in order to protect the Ossetians from Georgian nationalism.

Therefore, Georgia`s gamble backfired from the onset because both leaders of Russia, President Medvedev and PM Putin, stated that the armed forces of Russia had an obligation to preserve the status quo and to protect the Ossetians because the majority had Russian passports. Also, for the Russian Federation this was all about America and her meddling in this region. After all, the USA is supporting major energy routes which bypass the Russian Federation and Iran. This applies to supporting oil and gas pipelines which exploit the natural resources of Central Asia and Azerbaijan respectively and then this energy is linked to Europe via pipelines which go through Georgia and Turkey.

Given this, the stakes were very high and when America told Russia to respect the unity of Georgia, it became apparent that America and Georgia had hoped that this pressure would have silenced Russia. However, this was badly judged because Russia "is not a paper tiger" and her armed forces swiftly entered Tskhinvali, the regional capital of South Ossetia, and re-took the region after bombing Georgian forces within South Ossetia and inside Georgia itself. So Russia`s response was extremely swift and instead of a Georgian victory the opposite is happening and now the restive region of Abkhazia threatens to create a war on two fronts for Georgia.

America is now "sabre-rattling" by stating that relations may suffer long-term between America and Russia. However, for Russia it is clear that NATO expansion and America`s missile shield in both the Czech Republic and Poland (still not fully agreed) is all about containing Russia. Therefore, when President Saakashvili of Georgia ordered the attack on South Ossetia it left Russia with no option but to defend her sphere of influence.

Now the situation on the ground looks firmly within the control of Russia but this conflict is still in its infancy and wars are never easy to predict. Therefore, much depends on the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia because they may sense that this is a great opportunity to seek independence or complete autonomy from Georgia. So now it is vital that Russia contains independent movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia which are technically within Georgia, but in reality both regions desire to join the Russian Federation.

Whatever, Russia is clearly telling America, NATO, and the EU, that mutual respect is needed and while Russia respects the sphere of influences of America, NATO, and the EU, it is now vital that other nations respond like Germany towards Russia. Therefore, Russia desires to be taken seriously and the leader of Georgia enabled Russia to show the world that they mean business. So will America understand this geopolitical reality or will they ferment another crisis in the "backyard of Russia?"

Overall, it would appear that Georgia is the big loser because now both Abkhazia and South Ossetia understand that Georgia desires to take both regions back by military force. Yet now it is clear that Russia will not stand back and refrain from protecting the people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia respectively. If Georgia had waited for a political solution then maybe her claims would have been supported internationally. However, by attacking South Ossetia first, the high moral ground was lost.

Now it is hoped that nationalist forces can be contained within the region and it is in the interest of Russia to contain both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. At the same time, it is vital that America and the EU do the same with regards to Georgia. If bloodshed erupts in Chechnya or in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, then we know that outside meddling is causing mayhem. However, it is not in the interest of outside powers to upset the applecart, therefore, much now rests on the status quo being maintained.

Therefore, Georgia must learn from their mistake and President Saakashvili should seek a compromise with Russia. If President Saakashvili does not learn quickly then he will threaten the unity of Georgia. Now it is hoped that all sides will sit down and talk about the seriousness of this situation. However, it is clear that Russia "holds all the aces" at the moment but they must not play poker. Instead Russia must be a responsible power and they have to contain both Abkhazia and South Ossetia by protecting the citizens of both regions.

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA
http://journals.aol.com/leejaywalker/uk/
TOKYO,
JAPAN.